Early Heisman Favorites
Technically, the Heisman Trophy is awarded to college football's most outstanding player. In reality, the award is given to the most outstanding player who was at his best when playing in the national spotlight.
Just as the two teams stand poised to battle for the national championship, Lawrence and Fields will enter next season as the overwhelming co-favorites for the Heisman Trophy. While the offseason just began for most of these young men, early 2020 Heisman odds provide a potential edge heading into the year. Kedon Slovis – USC – Quarterback (+1000). Alabama wideout DeVonta Smith, the AP Player of the Year, became the first pass-catcher to win the Heisman Trophy since 1991 on Tuesday, following a spectacular senior season with the Crimson Tide. The early 2021 Heisman odds are out, and there are three Alabama football players listed. Quarterback Bryce Young, running back Brian Robinson Jr., and wide receiver John Metchie III are among the. The Heisman runner-up in 2018, Tagovailoa is again among the early Heisman favorites for the upcoming season. His performance against Clemson in the CFP title game was forgettable, but aside from the finale, where he was not 100 percent healthy, Tua’s 2018 season was remarkable from a number of standpoints.
Never was this reality more evident than in 2011. Robert Griffin III shined in nationally televised prime-time games against TCU and Oklahoma, while Andrew Luck actually looked mortal against USC and Oregon. The result was a fairly lopsided vote, in what had initially appeared to be one of the closest Heisman races in recent memory.
With that in mind, the following isn't necessarily a list of the best players in college football, or a projection of how the 2012 Heisman race will play out. Instead, the candidates are ranked in order of who has the best opportunity -- based on likely nationally televised games, team expectations and general public perception -- to hoist the trophy in December.
To determine each player's ranking, various plausible scenarios were run through the Heisman Predictor -- a formula designed to predict the Heisman winner based on various individual and team statistics. Throughout the season, candidates earn Predictor points based on their overall stats, as well as their performances in major games to account for the all-important 'Heisman moments.'
The Predictor allows for players to earn these points in a variety of ways, which accounts for the fact that no Heisman winner's résumé looks the same. For this reason, we've also included the most realistic winning résumé each candidate could put together, along with his expected Predictor points.
1. Matt Barkley, QB, USC Trojans
While the results of the last few seasons have bucked this trend, historically, Heisman voters are drawn to players from traditional powers who enter the year as household names. If Barkley, coming off a sixth-place finish in the Heisman voting, simply matches his statistics from 2011 and leads USC to a BCS bowl game, he'll be a serious contender.
Early Heisman Favorites
Barkley's biggest challenge could be USC's schedule. It's tough to win the award without playing on the national stage, and Barkley may not get many opportunities. The toughest opponent on the Trojans' schedule is Oregon, which, after losing Darron Thomas and LaMichael James to the NFL, may not be able to provide Barkley with the challenge he needs.
Barkley's Heisman scenario: Lead USC to BCS National Championship Game, 40+ TD; 150 Predictor points
Early Heisman Favorite For 2022 Football
2. Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia Bulldogs
Murray will be a newcomer to the Heisman discussion in 2012, but Georgia's favorable schedule gives him an excellent chance to make a serious run at the award. Navigating through the SEC is never an easy task, but Georgia avoids the LSU Tigers, Arkansas Razorbacks and Alabama Crimson Tide this year (as it did in 2011), which should make the Bulldogs heavy favorites to win the SEC East. If Murray can lead them to a win over the division rival South Carolina Gamecocks, Georgia should cruise into the SEC title game.
There is a downside to Georgia's relatively favorable schedule, however. Aside from their showdown with South Carolina, it's unlikely that any of the Bulldogs' regular-season games will be played in the national spotlight. For this reason, Murray's candidacy could come down to his final game. With a strong performance in the SEC championship, Murray could make a late surge if no one has established himself as the front-runner. A loss, however, likely would ruin any hope of even making a trip to New York City for the ceremony.
Murray's Heisman scenario: Lead Georgia to undefeated season; 139 Predictor points
3. Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas Razorbacks
The best offensive player in the SEC has finished in the top three of the Heisman voting in each of the past six years, winning three times. Who that player will be in 2012 is up for debate, but Wilson is certainly in the mix.
The only reason Wilson isn't ranked ahead of Murray is due to Arkansas' placement in the SEC West, the same division as LSU and Alabama. Regardless of his stats, if Arkansas doesn't win its division and advance to the SEC championship game, Wilson will be out of sight, out of mind on the final weekend before the Heisman voting. And you can ask Luck and Trent Richardson how that turns out.
Wilson's Heisman scenario: Lead Arkansas to BCS Championship Game; 140.5 Predictor points
4. Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan Wolverines
For the third consecutive season Robinson will be in the Heisman conversation, and thanks to Michigan's preseason expectations, he may have a legitimate shot at winning this time around. The one glaring piece missing from Robinson's Heisman résumé the past two seasons has been a signature victory. But he'll have his chance this year when the Wolverines face Alabama on opening weekend.
Robinson's Heisman scenario: Beat Alabama, 40+ TD, lead Michigan to BCS bowl game; 132.5 Predictor points
5. Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina Gamecocks
Having never finished in the top 10 of the Heisman voting, technically Lattimore won't receive an edge in the Predictor. However, Lattimore was a serious contender until suffering a season-ending injury in 2011, which means most voters are already familiar with his play. As a result, Lattimore should be in the race this season so long as he stays on the field.
As Richardson and Montee Ball learned this past year, running backs have little chance of winning the Heisman without first leading their team to the national title game. For this reason, Lattimore is a bit of a long shot, but South Carolina should enter the year in the preseason top 10, giving him some hope.
One advantage Lattimore does have, however, is South Carolina's schedule, which could feature as many as four regular-season games against top-10 opponents this year -- a brutal schedule compared with Georgia's relatively light slate of games. While the schedule hurts the Gamecocks' national championship hopes, it also provides Lattimore with plenty of opportunities to shine on the national stage. With consistently strong performances in these games, regardless of the outcome, he could remain in the mix despite a few losses.
Lattimore's Heisman scenario: 20+ TD, lead South Carolina to BCS title game; 131.5 Predictor points
6. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma Sooners
Typically, high-profile players have a leg up on other contenders entering the year, but that might not be the case for Jones in 2012. As a preseason favorite in 2011, Jones failed to live up to expectations and dropped out of the race altogether by season's end. Now, as a four-year starter, Jones will face expectations that are higher than ever -- and simply meeting them might not be enough.
That said, Jones certainly has the potential to win over his doubters. Oklahoma's offensive scheme is favorable for Heisman candidates, as Jason White and Sam Bradford can attest. Additionally, the Sooners have two games, against the Texas Longhorns and Notre Dame Fighting Irish, which are sure to receive national attention.
Jones' Heisman scenario: Lead Oklahoma to undefeated season; 148.0 Predictor points
7. Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide
Lacy might be the least recognizable name on this list, but we'll know if he's a legitimate contender before September is over. Two of Alabama's first three games are in Cowboys Stadium against Michigan on opening weekend, and then at Arkansas just two weeks later. If Lacy can lead the Crimson Tide to wins in both games he will quickly climb the rankings, potentially establishing himself as a very early favorite.
Lacy's Heisman scenario: 20+ TD, lead Alabama to national title game; 141.5 Predictor points
8. Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin Badgers
As a general rule of thumb, you need a career year to win the Heisman, and it will be incredibly difficult for Ball to surpass his 2011 numbers. However, Ball does have the ability to lead Wisconsin to new heights. Should Ball match his totals from a season ago, and lead the Badgers to their first BCS title game, it could be enough to win over the voters who weren't impressed enough by his 39 total touchdowns this past season.
Ball's Heisman scenario: 30+ TD, lead Wisconsin to BCS title game; 151.5 Predictor points
9. Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia Mountaineers
No one from the Big East has finished in the top three of the Heisman voting since Larry Fitzgerald in 2003. If anyone can put an end to that streak, however, it's Smith playing in Dana Holgorsen's high-flying offense.
For Smith to win he'll need to put up Robert Griffin III-like numbers (at least 50 touchdowns), but if the Orange Bowl was any indication of what's to come in 2012, Smith has the potential to make a serious run at the award.
Smith's Heisman scenario: 50+ TD, lead West Virginia to Big East title; 149 Predictor points
10. Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon Ducks
A few weeks ago it was hard to imagine Barner as a legitimate Heisman candidate. But with Thomas and James bolting for the NFL, Barner has suddenly emerged as the star of the Ducks' offense.
As a relatively unknown contender, Barner enters the season at a disadvantage, but starring in Chip Kelly's offense should quickly solve that problem. Assuming he posts numbers similar to James' stats from the past two seasons, Barner should be in contention.
The key to Barner's candidacy will be how he performs against USC. Running backs are at a disadvantage in the Heisman voting already, and it would be nearly impossible to overcome a loss in a head-to-head battle with Barkley.
Another obstacle Barner might need to overcome is his own teammate, De'Anthony Thomas. As a true freshman in 2011, Thomas racked up 1,200 yards from scrimmage and 16 total touchdowns, and will likely see an increased role this season. With two similar players excelling on the same team, it might be difficult for either to build momentum in the Heisman race.
Barner's Heisman scenario: 20+ TD, beat USC, lead Oregon to Pac-12 title; 132 Predictor points
Other candidates (in alphabetical order): Tajh Boyd, Clemson Tigers; Collin Klein, Kansas State Wildcats; Tyrann Mathieu, LSU Tigers; Braxton Miller, Ohio State Buckeyes; Keith Price, Washington Huskies; Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech Hokies; Sammy Watkins, Clemson Tigers; Robert Woods, USC Trojans
Ryan McCrystal is the developer of the Heisman Predictor formula and writes about it every week of the college football season for Insider. He has missed only once, in 2009, and is determined to pick the right winner again this season. Check out his full archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
Early Heisman Contenders
Each year you can pretty much pencil in a quarterback winning the Heisman Trophy, the most prestigious award in college football. Alabama WR DeVonta Smith broke that trend in 2020, however, becoming the first non-QB to win the award since Alabama RB Derrick Henry in 2015. Since 2010, QBs have won the Heisman nine times – with Smith and Henry being the only exceptions. Sportsbooks have already posted 2021 Heisman odds, with Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler and Alabama QB Bryce Young the favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Non-QBs in the mix for 2021 are Texas RB Bijan Robinson (+2500 at DK) and Alabama WR John Metchie (+8000).
Heisman odds 2021
View odds for more candidates at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM.
Favorites
Lincoln Riley is looking to build on his resume of two Heisman winners and three Heisman finalists with sophomore Spencer Rattler. Rattler leads early odds tables thanks to a late season explosion and due in part to Riley’s success. In his first year as a starting quarterback, he scored 34 total touchdowns and secured a Big 12 title, Peach Bowl victory, and a win over arch rival Texas. Oklahoma’s system maximizes a quarterback’s potential and emphasizes efficiency (Oklahoma has been in the top three in offensive efficiency every year under Riley).
Following Rattler is Alabama sophomore Bryce Young, who finished as the second overall recruit (top dual-threat) in the 2020 recruiting class. Young has an array of weapons readily available at Alabama that includes rising star John Metchie III. Thanks to surrounding talent and Nick Saban, whoever starts at quarterback is immediately in the running for the Heisman Trophy.
Sophomores continue the list with Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei, who led the Tigers in two games this season– a 47-40 overtime loss to top-five Notre Dame and a victory over Boston College. Uiagalelei averaged nearly 400 passing yards in his two starts and vaulted himself into future Heisman consideration. Dabo Swinney has produced three Heisman finalists (no winners) since 2015, and Uiagalelei could end up being number four.
Longshots
After tearing his ACL in the Cheez-It Bowl against Oklahoma State, Miami’s D’Eriq King announced he would be returning for a sixth season as a graduate transfer. He was considered a Heisman favorite going into the 2020 season, but fell short amid outstanding seasons from other players. Should King be back in time for the 2021 season, he will be near the top of odds tables for most of the season.
Kedon Slovis is returning to USC after a majorly disappointing 2020. Slovis was among the short list for the Heisman Trophy going into the season, but the Trojans’ season was mostly derailed by COVID-19. It culminated in a Pac-12 Championship loss to Oregon, and Slovis decided he would be back. He loses top target Amon-Ra St. Brown to the NFL this season, but USC is never far off the top of recruiting rankings.
Texas sophomore running back Bijan Robinson is the highest non-quarterback on most odds tables after averaging a staggering 8.2 yards per carry in his freshman year. Robinson dazzled in the Alamo Bowl against Colorado, averaging 18.3 yards per carry on 10 carries. With Sam Ehlinger leaving for the NFL and under new head coach Steve Sarkisian, Robinson should see his lion’s share of work this coming season.
How to bet Heisman Trophy futures
By their very nature, odds on futures wagers are subject to varying degree of fluctuation. In the case of player-level futures like the Heisman Trophy, a number of different factors can influence the trajectory of his futures odds as the games unfold week to week. That includes not only performance, results and stats, but also injuries.
Take the example of the 2019 pre-season pacesetter at both FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks — Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The sophomore took a lot of money and his odds dropped all the way to +200 at FanDuel and +175 on DraftKings at one point in 2019. Clemson was projected to be at least a 13-point favorite in all regular-season games, and bettors believed Lawrence would lead the Tigers offense to even greater heights after capturing the National Championship in 2018 while averaging 44.3 points per game.
Lawrence fell out of the 2019 race early, though, and his odds to win plummeted. He ultimately finished seventh in the voting as Joe Burrow grabbed the coveted Trophy.
How is the Heisman Trophy winner decided?
A total of 870 media members (sports journalists mostly covering college football) from six regions along with 59 former Heisman winners vote on the award. Voters can select three players on their ballot. A first place vote allots 3 points to the player selected, second place gets 2 points and third place gets 1 point.
The Heisman and the AP Player of the Year honor the most outstanding player. The award is given for outstanding performance which best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity. Winners epitomize great ability combined with diligence, perseverance, and hard work. Since 2002, the award has been presented by the Heisman Trophy trust, and was first presented in 1935 by the Downtown Athletic Club in New York City.
Over the last 20 years, just two Heisman winners have played on teams that won fewer than 10 games – Florida’s Tim Tebow in 2007 and Louisville’s Lamar Jackson in 2016. But those two teams each won 9 games. So narrow your list to the projected top teams and review the schedules and players likelihood to put up strong stats with outstanding performances.
Where can you bet on college football futures?
The Heisman Trophy futures markets are available at all legal, regulated sportsbooks. Heisman futures are located behind the college football tab in online sportsbook platforms, under a specific Futures tab. Players are listed along with their corresponding odds at that point in time.